About the article
N.Yu. Mutovkina, M.S. Koltyakov
The actual problems of forecasting the value of securities, commodities and other exchange products are considered. It is noted that forecasting tasks are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, but in the arsenal of a modern economist there is a sufficient number of forecasting methods and analysis of its results. The choice of the optimal method or their complex application is analyzed, taking into account the need to obtain as accurate a forecast as possible. It is indicated that not only knowledge of theory and experience in making forecasts are required, but also a creative component in the character of the researcher, a well-developed intuition. It is concluded that often the choice of the forecasting method depends on the formulation of the problem, the economic situation, i.e. the conditions in which the analyst is forced to act. The historical aspects of the formation of the Russian stock market are analyzed. The differences of economic approaches involving the cyclical nature of the economy are described. As an illustration of the possibilities of applying wave theories to forecasting the financial condition of economic entities that are participants in the stock market, a forecast of the value of shares of PJSC «Polyus» has been compiled.
Elliott’s theory, stock market, cyclical development of the economy, Kuznets cycles, Kondratiev’s cycles, Dow’s theory.